578
WTNT45 KNHC 102035
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2025
JERRY'S CENTER REMAINS SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED AND EMBEDDED ALONG THE
EASTERN END OF A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH.
STRONG SHEAR OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS DISPLACING MUCH OF THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, WITH
TRAILING BANDS STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING, THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT, WITH
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 340/13 KT. JERRY
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH THAT MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS JERRY BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NOT TOO DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION SINCE THERE HAVE NOT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT MODEL CHANGES FROM 6 HOURS AGO.
JERRY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE BATTLING MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS) SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR
MIGHT DECREASE A BIT AFTER 48 HOURS, AT THAT POINT JERRY WILL BE
MOVING OVER MORE MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
IN JERRY'S INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 3, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE SAME GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS
ALSO SHOW JERRY POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A FRONT IN 48-72 HOURS,
AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
DAY 4 WITH DISSIPATION ALONG THE FRONT BY DAY 5. THE GFS MAINTAINS
JERRY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 5, BUT THAT SOLUTION IS
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN STEEP TERRAIN.
2. SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
WINDWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 21.5N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 23.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.3N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 31.4N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 31.4N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 30.1N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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