199
WTPZ32 KNHC 102331
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
500 PM MST FRI OCT 10 2025
..RAYMOND APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
..TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE ON SATURDAY
SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE, MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD
MOTION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
OVER THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ42 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ISLAS MARIAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8
OR MORE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SONORA AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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