463
WTPZ42 KNHC 110237
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
800 PM MST FRI OCT 10 2025
RAYMOND HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS RAGGED AND
LACKS BANDING FEATURES. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO SEE,
BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
CLOUD MASS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT, WHICH IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
RAYMOND'S CONVECTION IS GETTING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN THERE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 16 KT
STEERED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
THE RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION
WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO LOSE STRENGTH DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND MOVING
INTO MAINLAND MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RAYMOND DISSIPATES OR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE
THEN. REGARDLESS OF HOW LONG RAYMOND SURVIVES, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE KEY MESSAGES BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ALONG PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 20.2N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.8N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 23.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 26.7N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 29.3N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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