719
WTPZ32 KNHC 110545
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
1100 PM MST FRI OCT 10 2025
..RAYMOND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE ON
SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE, MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ42 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAS ISLAS MARIAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8
OR MORE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SONORA AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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