086
WTPZ42 KNHC 110835
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
200 AM MST SAT OCT 11 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAYMOND HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO BE AFFECTED BY
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR, ANALYZED TO BE AROUND 18 KT BY UW-CIMSS. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS WAS HELPFUL IN IDENTIFYING THE CENTER
POSITION AND INDICATED A PEAK WIND VECTOR OF 35 KT. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
3.0/45 KT AND 2.0/30 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED FROM 32 TO 39 KT. CONSIDERING THESE DATA
AND ACCOUNTING FOR POTENTIAL UNDERSAMPLING IN THE SCATTEROMETER
WINDS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
RAYMOND CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310 DEGREES AT
14 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
RAYMOND DISSIPATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY
LATE SUNDAY. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A DELAYED NORTHWARD
TURN, AND IT REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION
THEREAFTER.
RAYMOND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST
SHEAR AND A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHILE ALSO INTERACTING WITH
LAND, INCLUDING MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT, AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF HOW LONG RAYMOND SURVIVES, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE KEY MESSAGES BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAS ISLAS MARIAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 20.9N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 22.6N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.4N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.2N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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