006
WTNT45 KNHC 110858
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2025
JERRY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES AND AMSR2 PASSIVE MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT NEW DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION OF
THE STORM, WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDING NOTED IN THE 89 GHZ
CHANNEL. BASED ON THESE DEVELOPMENTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 50 KT, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LAST
NIGHT. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS ASYMMETRIC, WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF JERRY IS NORTH (005 DEG) AT 14 KT. A
GENERAL NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES REORIENTED TO THE SOUTH
OF JERRY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONT AND MOVES WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD A SIMPLE
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WAS GENERALLY ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE CENTER OF
JERRY MAY STILL BE ELONGATED. EVEN IF THE STORM IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN
A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE IS
LITTLE TO SUGGEST THAT JERRY WILL STRENGTHEN. AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHWARD, IT WILL REMAIN IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER MARGINAL SSTS. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE NHC
FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
JERRY APPEARS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT SOME POINT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER, AND SO THE NHC PREDICTION FAVORS THE
EARLIER FRONTAL INTERACTION SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS.
ALTERNATIVELY, THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME STRETCHED OUT AND ABSORBED
ALONG THE FRONT EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
WINDWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC,
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 24.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 29.0N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 31.1N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 32.5N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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