618
WTPZ32 KNHC 111147
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
500 AM MST SAT OCT 11 2025
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 109.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH THIS MOTION THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
RAYMOND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON
SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ42 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAS ISLAS MARIAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8
OR MORE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SONORA AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING THE COASTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.
FORECASTER KELLY
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