364
WTPZ42 KNHC 111439
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
800 AM MST SAT OCT 11 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE, RATHER RAPIDLY, WITH BARELY ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME RATHER
RAGGED, AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WAS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN EXPECTED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE COME DOWN DUE TO THE WANING CONVECTION,
RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
330/13 KT. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE
SYSTEM ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION ADJUSTMENT.
RAYMOND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR, AND A DRIER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GFS
SIMULATED IR SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MAY NOT REGAIN
CONVECTION. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING, AND
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT A DAY AND
DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER, ALTHOUGH IF LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE THIS
COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE BEYOND A DAY OR SO,
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER ENVELOPE FROM RAYMOND WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL IMPACT SECTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM
RAYMOND WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 21.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 23.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 26.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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