080
WTNT45 KNHC 111456
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2025
THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THIS MORNING THAT JERRY MAY NO LONGER
HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
OBVIOUS MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, LOW
CLOUD LINES IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH IS
ECHOED BY GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS. WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES AT THE
MOMENT, PENDING SOME ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
CLARITY ON THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE. ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED
AT ANY TIME IF NEW DATA SHOWS THAT JERRY HAS OPENED UP INTO A
TROUGH.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 45 KT, SO
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO THAT VALUE. THE EUROPEAN,
UKMET, AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW JERRY'S CIRCULATION REMAINING
STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENING WHILE BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO ITS NORTH NEAR 30N IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
EVEN THE GFS, WHICH KEEPS JERRY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
SHOWS THE PEAK WINDS DECREASING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS
JERRY BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATING 72 HOURS,
BUT BOTH OF THESE TRANSITIONS COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED, THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD (005 DEGREES) AT 14 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD MOTION ON
MONDAY AS JERRY MERGES WITH A FRONT AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY
JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 25.8N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 28.0N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 32.0N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 32.6N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 14/0000Z 32.0N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page