334
WTPZ42 KNHC 112032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
200 PM MST SAT OCT 11 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OF RAYMOND IS
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AS WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR TAKE THEIR
TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. A 1600 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS OF 27 KT, THUS THE DOWNGRADE OF RAYMOND TO
A DEPRESSION AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. WITH THE SYSTEM DEVOID
OF CONVECTION IT IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
335/12 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH, TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, IS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER
THE PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.
GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT PRODUCED CONVECTION, IT IS ON THE
CLOCK INTO TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW LATER TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN, BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT, AND DISSIPATING ON
SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE BEYOND SUNDAY, THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER ENVELOPE FROM RAYMOND WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 22.5N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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