001
WTNT42 KNHC 132035
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2025
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF LORENZO IS PRODUCING STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE MOSTLY
EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA
AND A T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA
IS ALSO THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII, WHICH SHOWS THE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STORM.
LORENZO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT, AND THAT MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY, A TURN TO
THE NORTH IS FORECAST AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH CUTTING OFF, CAUSING LORENZO TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN EASTWARD
OR SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH HCCA. REGARDLESS OF THE
DETAILS, LORENZO IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR LAND DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
THE STRONG SHEAR OVER LORENZO IS LIKELY TO LET UP DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE
CIRCULATION. IN FACT, SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO
REMAINING LOPSIDED AND EVEN OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING, BUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LORENZO SUCCUMBS TO
THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS PREDICTION IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page