569
WTNT42 KNHC 142034
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2025
LORENZO IS REALLY STRUGGLING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM IS NOW ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION AS
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE
DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
LORENZO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. A TURN TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.
DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
LORENZO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE, AND LORENZO IS NOW FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY DAY 3. IN FACT, MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW LORENZO
OPENING INTO A TROUGH EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 18.7N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 25.6N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 28.3N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 29.8N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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