567
WTNT42 KNHC 150231
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2025
LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS EVENING, WITH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
THESE BURSTS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT.
GIVEN THE CONVECTION HAS ONLY JUST RECENTLY RETURNED OVER THE
CENTER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
345/10 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENGULFED IN THE FLOW OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS, JUST A LITTLE FASTER AND LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE DRIER AIR AND WIND SHEAR HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE THEIR TOLL ON
LORENZO, WITH CONVECTION REMAINING DISORGANIZED. AS LORENZO BEGINS
TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION, EVENTUALLY
OPENING INTO A TROUGH. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MOVED UP
DISSIPATION TO 48 H, ALTHOUGH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO
OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND DISSIPATING EVEN SOONER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 19.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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