337
WTNT42 KNHC 150835
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2025
WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LORENZO HAS INCREASED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
HELD AT 35 KT.
LORENZO HAS TURNED NORTHWARD WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 010/11 KT.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LORENZO WILL
DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH DUE TO SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION, WITH
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS HAPPENING DURING THE NEXT 24 H. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MOVES UP THE TIME OF DISSIPATION TO BETWEEN
24-36 H, AND LORENZO COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN THAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 20.5N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 22.9N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 25.7N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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