236
WTNT42 KNHC 151439
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2025
LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED, DEEP
CONVECTION. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE ARE NO NEW SATELLITE MICROWAVE OR
SCATTEROMETER DATA AVAILABLE TO DIAGNOSE THE STATE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS ELONGATED,
BUT THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS ARE STILL OBSCURING THE NEAR-SURFACE
STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT, CONSISTENT WITH
THE TAFB AND AIDT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ACCELERATED MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AS LORENZO BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS,
THOUGH THIS COULD MUCH OCCUR SOONER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 21.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 23.7N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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