254
WTNT33 KNHC 220231
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST. MELISSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, MELISSA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF HAITI
LATER THIS WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN
HAITI BEGINNING LATE ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD
BEGIN IN JAMAICA ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: MELISSA IS FORECAST TO BRING 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN HAITI AND THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ACROSS EASTERN JAMAICA, 4 TO
8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, ALSO WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEYOND FRIDAY;
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN MELISSA’S TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED REDUCES
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TOTALS. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN HAITI, 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR ARUBA, WESTERN
JAMAICA, AND PUERTO RICO, 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO
HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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