348
AXPZ20 KNHC 220308
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH AXIS ALONG 105W, LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N73W TO 11N96W TO 1011 MB LOW
PRES LOCATED NEAR 12.5N114W TO 09N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
09N120W TO 09N125W TO 11N130W, THEN RESUMES FROM 11N134W TO
BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W, FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 128W AND 132W AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 132W AND 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, CENTERED ON 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
26N121W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS, AS WELL AS THROUGH THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN NW
SWELL, EXCEPT 7 TO 8 FT IN NEW NW SWELL ACROSS THE OUTER WATER OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO CORRIENTES
TO PUERTO ANGEL, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 5 FT
PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND SOUTHWESTWARD TO ABOUT 15N,
THEN BECOME FRESH EASTERLY WINDS THAT FOLLOW INTO THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO ALONG 105W. SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO WILL COMBINE WITH BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TO MAINTAIN AN EARLY SEASON
GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, REACHING NEAR 30 KT, AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 7 OR 8 FT, ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
EVENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MOST OF THE
WEEK. NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK WED THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL
FRESHEN ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY WED MORNING, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.
LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AFFECTING
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND COASTAL WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATED GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS TO THE NORTH
OF IT, BETWEEN PAPAGAYO AND EL SALVADOR. MODERATE SEAS 6 FT OR
LESS PREVAIL IN THESE WATERS IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL, EXCEPT 3 FT
OR LESS IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ON WED, AND BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE, WITH
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA HAS COLLAPSED AS A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SE N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST
WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM ACOSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM ACROSS THE SE
QUADRANT OF A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 12N132W. SEAS THERE ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO
20N AND W OF 120W. MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE WITHIN THESE
WINDS, EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW CENTER DESCRIBED ABOVE. MODERATE NE TO
E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL DOMINATE THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION, PARTICULARLY N OF 27N W OF 125W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL BUILD EASTWARD, TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM,
AND INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI, AND REINFORCE THE
CURRENT RIDGE DOMINATING THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 132W WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE LOW CENTER THROUGH AT LEAST THU
MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W BY THU AFTERNOON WHILE
IT OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION ON THU BRINGING ROUGH
SEAS.
GR
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