598
AXPZ20 KNHC 221541
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 87W/88W, SOUTH OF
18N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS, AND IN THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AND 94W.
A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH AXIS ALONG 106W, IS LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, AND IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO WELL SOUTH OF
COLIMA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FT ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND A
HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11.5N77W TO 08N84W TO 12N98W TO
13N112W TO 09N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N120W TO 12.5N133W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
08.5N EAST OF 84W, FROM 06.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 84.5W AND 94W, AND
FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08.5N TO 16N
BETWEEN 99W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, CENTERED ON 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
26N128W. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS, WITH
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FRESHENED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
BAJA WATERS SURROUNDING PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN
BUILDING NW SWELL EXCEPT 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF
BAJA NORTE, AND 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ALSO DOMINATE THE WATERS OF
JALISCO AND COLIMA WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN NEARSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION,
WHERE A NARROW PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS EXTENDS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 13.5N. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS. FARTHER WEST, AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS S
OF 15N, BETWEEN 100W AND 108W, ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THAT AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GAP WIND
EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, REACHING NEAR 30 KT, AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS TO 7 OR 8 FT, ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-
WEEK. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH THU, AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS IT SHIFTS WEST OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ZONES. PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH
NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR
89W, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 6 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE SW TO W WINDS TO THE S OF IT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT,
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH TODAY, AND BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 115W.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE NOTED N OF 20N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND 20N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM ACROSS THE
SE QUADRANT OF A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 13.5N134W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL BUILD EASTWARD, TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM,
AND INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI, AND REINFORCE THE
CURRENT RIDGE DOMINATING THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 134W WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE LOW CENTER THROUGH AT LEAST THU
MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W BY THU AFTERNOON WHILE
IT OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH. NEW NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST REGION ON THU BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUGH
SEAS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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