321
AXPZ20 KNHC 222055
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2040 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 88W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS, AND IN THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 93W.
A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH AXIS ALONG 106W-107W, IS LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO WELL SOUTH
OF COLIMA THAT EXTENDS WELL SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE
THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N77W TO 08N90W TO 12N98W TO
13N103W TO 10N107W TO 11N116W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N116W
TO 09N128W TO 13.5N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
05N TO 11.5N EAST OF 93W, AND FROM 07.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W AND
136W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 101W AND 115.5W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A RECENTLY
COLLAPSED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 27N127W. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NEAR PUNTA
EUGENIA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN BUILDING NW SWELL EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3
FT. GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
WATERS OUT TO 100 NM BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND PUERTO ANGEL.
FURTHER OFFSHORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, A NARROW
PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS EXTENDS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 14N. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GAP WIND
EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, REACHING NEAR 30 KT, AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS TO 8 OR 9 FT, ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
TONIGHT THROUGH THU, AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TODAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS IT SHIFTS WEST OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ZONES. PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE NE TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W, WHERE
SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO
W WINDS TO THE S OF IT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT, PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELL, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND OVER MUCH OF PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION WILL DIMINISH TODAY, AND BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH FRI. SW MONSOONAL
WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM
MELISSA IN THE CARIBBEAN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 115W.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE NOTED N OF 20N AND W OF 120W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
ARE BETWEEN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND 20N. HOWEVER, FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE
OF A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
14N136W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH HIGHEST SEAS N OF 27N.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD, TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM, AND INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI, AND REINFORCE THE CURRENT RIDGE
DOMINATING THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND A WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 136W WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS NEAR THE LOW CENTER THROUGH MIDDAY THU, BEFORE THE LOW
CROSSES 140W AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH. NEW NW SWELL WILL REACH
THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION ON THU BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ROUGH SEAS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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