804
WTNT43 KNHC 230236
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MELISSA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM SITUATED TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE VERY DEEP WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 DEG C OR
COLDER. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE STORM DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. TAIL DOPPLER DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT. OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT
FALLING AT THIS TIME, AND THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 KT.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.
CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT MELISSA IS STILL MOVING
VERY SLOWLY, AT AROUND 270/2 KT. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD IN A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 48 HOURS OR SO, A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO THE NORTH OF MELISSA WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WESTWARD TURN.
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO TURN TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE SIMPLE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS SOMEWHAT WEST OF THE LATEST
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE MODELS, INDICATING LESS THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, ESPECIALLY AROUND DAY 5.
MELISSA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY SIGNIFICANT
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, SO ONLY
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RELAXATION OF THE
SHEAR. THIS, ALONG WITH THE VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER
THE AREA, COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND VERY CLOSE
TO THE HCCA AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MELISSA IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND
COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA, HAITI, CUBA, AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
2. DUE TO MELISSA’S SLOW MOTION, THE RISK OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS, POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A DAY OR MORE, IS INCREASING FOR
JAMAICA AND THE TIBURON PENINSULA OF HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION, SINCE STRONG
WINDS COULD BEGIN IN THESE AREAS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND.
3. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, HAITI, AND JAMAICA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 14.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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