130
AXPZ20 KNHC 230359
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 90W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH AXIS ALONG 108W FROM 08N TO 16N IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 KT. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, BUT A
HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 11N115W TO 08N130W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W, AND
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, WITH ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS. FARTHER NORTH, WEAK
RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FUNNELING
ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER
PASS INDICATED 8 TO 9 FT COMBINED SEAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
LIKELY WITH A COMPONENT OF NW SWELL. GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GAP WIND EVENT
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, REACHING NEAR 30 KT, AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS TO 8 OR 9 FT, ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
TONIGHT THROUGH THU, AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ACROSS THE AREA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF IT. SEAS ARE 4
TO 5 FT, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH AND OVER
MUCH OF PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF
115W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND 20N.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH HIGHEST SEAS NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 125W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD, TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM, AND INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI, AND REINFORCE THE CURRENT RIDGE
DOMINATING THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND A WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 136W WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS NEAR THE LOW CENTER THROUGH MIDDAY THU, BEFORE THE LOW
CROSSES 140W AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH. NEW NW SWELL WILL REACH
THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION ON THU BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ROUGH SEAS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHRISTENSEN
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