869
AXPZ20 KNHC 230940
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 90W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED CONVECTION NORTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.
A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH AXIS ALONG 108W FROM 08N TO 16N, DRIFTING
WEST AT 5 KT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 11N, AND AND IS BEING MONITORED AS INVEST 92E. THIS PATTERN
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 KT. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND
A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 07N95W TO 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 10N108W, TO 08N127W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE NORTH OF 03N AND EAST OF 80W, FROM 10N TO
14N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W, AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND
120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, WITH ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS. A SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS FROM 0245 UTC SHOWED NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC. FARTHER NORTH, WEAK RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A
0530 UTC SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EAST OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER
PASS INDICATED 8 TO 10 FT COMBINED SEAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
LIKELY WITH A COMPONENT OF NW SWELL. GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS, REACHING NEAR 30 KT, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
TO 8 FT, ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER
ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING LATE SUN. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS INTO FRI, AND THEN AGAIN LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
INVEST 92E IS CENTERED NEAR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS TO THE
SOUTH OF IT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT IN
THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND OVER MUCH OF PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF
115W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W. NW SWELL OF 7 TO 9
FT IS NOTED NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR A TROUGH ALONG 140W FROM 10N TO 15N.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM
14N TO 17N WEST OF 135W. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF INVEST 92E BETWEEN 110W AND 130W FROM 10N TO 15N
THROUGH MID WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT
FRESH NE WINDS AND 6 TO 7 FT NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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