181
WTNT33 KNHC 231447
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..MELISSA REORGANIZING AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 74.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. MELISSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY
A WESTWARD TURN OVER THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, MELISSA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THIS WEEKEND. MELISSA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN
HAITI AND JAMAICA BEGINNING ON LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BRING 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, SOUTHERN HAITI, AND EASTERN JAMAICA
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN
MELISSA’S TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TOTALS. REGARDLESS, SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
AND NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED.
ACROSS NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, NORTHERN HAITI, AND WESTERN
JAMAICA, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOODING IMPACTS MAY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA NEXT WEEK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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