914
WTNT33 KNHC 232050
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
500 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* JAMAICA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. MELISSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A SLOW
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED
BY RAPID INTENSIFICATION THIS WEEKEND. MELISSA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER
WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN
HAITI AND JAMAICA BEGINNING ON LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN HAITI AND JAMAICA EARLIER
ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BRING 8 TO 14 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, SOUTHERN HAITI, AND EASTERN JAMAICA
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN
MELISSA’S TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TOTALS. SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED.
ACROSS NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, NORTHERN HAITI, AND WESTERN
JAMAICA, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOODING IMPACTS MAY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA NEXT WEEK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF
JAMAICA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS AS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS
POTENTIAL RISK OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA, EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO MELISSA’S SLOW
MOTION AND LARGE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW
EXACTLY HOW HIGH THE STORM SURGE COULD REACH.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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