918
AXPZ20 KNHC 232057
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, IS ALONG 111W FROM 08N TO 17N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 08.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 108W AND
115W. LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13N111W, AND AND IS BEING MONITORED AS INVEST 92E. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09.5N TO
12.5N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W, WHILE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND 98W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11.5N77W TO 07N97W TO 13N104W TO
LOW PRESSURE 1009 MB NEAR 13N111W TO 08.5N125W TO 08.5N130W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08.5N130W TO 11.5N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06.5N
TO 10N EAST OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
04N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 104W, AND FROM 10.5N TO 15N WEST OF
137W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 13N, WITH
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
MIDDAY SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC. FARTHER NORTH, A MODEST RIDGE PERSISTS
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO JUST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, TO THE EAST OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS OF 7 TO
10 FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND 6 TO 8 FT
SOUTHWARD FROM THERE TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO PUERTO ANGEL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS,
REACHING NEAR 30 KT, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT,
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH MIDDAY FRI BEFORE
DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC STARTING SUN
NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
MOSTLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATING
SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT, WITH THE NEXT PULSE OF NW SWELL EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MIDDAY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE E
GAP WINDS EXITING THE PAPAGAYO REGION, BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING INTO THE SE MEXICO WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT 09N. GENTLE
TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
COLOMBIA. SLIGHT SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT PREVAIL. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 92W, IMPACTING THE COASTS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM
MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 14N AND WEST
OF 115W, CENTERED ON A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N133W. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED
NORTH OF 21N AND WEST OF 120W. NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 9
FT IS NOTED NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR A TROUGH ALONG
142W FROM 11N TO 16N AND W OF 137W, AND ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING W
OF 140W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 11N TO 17N
WEST OF 134W. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL HAS BEGUN TO ENTER
THE NW WATERS, WITH A SOFAR OCEAN DRIFTING BUOY NEAR 30N140W
RECENTLY MEASURING SEAS OF 12 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF INVEST 92E, BETWEEN 110W AND 130W FROM 10N TO 15N
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI, THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT MORNING, AND
REACH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 26N140W BY EARLY MON. LARGE NW
SWELL BUILDING ACROSS NW WATERS TODAY WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL NW SWELL
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS.
STRIPLING
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