048
WTNT33 KNHC 240237
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
...MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 75.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* JAMAICA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA ON FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. MELISSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A SLOW NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED
BY RAPID INTENSIFICATION THIS WEEKEND. MELISSA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN
HAITI AND JAMAICA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BRING 8 TO 14 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, SOUTHERN HAITI, AND EASTERN JAMAICA
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN
MELISSA'S TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TOTALS. SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN JAMAICA, WITH CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHERN HAITI.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, NORTHERN HAITI, AND WESTERN
JAMAICA, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOODING IMPACTS
MAY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA NEXT WEEK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF
JAMAICA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS AS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A POTENTIAL RISK OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA, EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO MELISSA'S
SLOW MOTION AND LARGE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
KNOW EXACTLY HOW HIGH THE STORM SURGE COULD REACH.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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