825
WTNT43 KNHC 240237
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
MELISSA HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-FORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH CLOSE TO A BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TAIL DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE STORM IS STILL NOT
VERTICALLY ALIGNED, AND THE CIRCULATION AT 700 AND 500 MB IS STILL
POORLY DEFINED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1001 MB, SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. HOWEVER, THE AIRCRAFT WIND
DATA SUGGEST THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD, 355/3 KT. MELISSA
REMAINS TRAPPED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN
MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MELISSA IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.
THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE MELISSA TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE
NEXT 24 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A WESTERLY TURN AT A CONTINUED SLOW
FORWARD SPEED. THE GFS AND THE HAFS REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW
A MORE INITIAL EASTWARD MOTION POSSIBLY DUE TO CENTER RE-FORMATION,
AND DUE TO THIS THEY FORECAST A TRACK EAST OF JAMAICA, FOLLOWED BY
AN EVENTUAL NORTHWARD MOTION TOWARD EASTERN CUBA. THE ECMWF,
CANADIAN, UKMET, HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
FORECAST A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAT PASSES SOUTH OF JAMAICA,
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN NEAR OR WEST OF THE WESTERN END OF THE
ISLAND NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HRWF, HMON, AND THE
OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE AND FORECAST THE CENTER
TO CROSS JAMAICA. THE NEW FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MORE
WESTERLY SOLUTION AND IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, THE CENTER
OF MELISSA IS LIKELY TO PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO JAMAICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND IT COULD ALSO COME CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI.
MELISSA IS STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY
SHEAR, AND BETWEEN THIS AND THE DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 H. AFTER THAT TIME, A
COMBINATION OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING ONCE
THE CYCLONE GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS
THE CENTER NEARS JAMAICA, AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN ADDITION, THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY IN SIZE, AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: DUE TO MELISSA’S SLOW MOTION, THE RISK OF A PROLONGED
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES, AND STORM SURGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR JAMAICA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION, SINCE STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS COULD BEGIN IN
JAMAICA BY SATURDAY.
2. HAITI: HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI BY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROADS AND BUILDINGS IS
EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY ISOLATING COMMUNITIES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION AND IMMEDIATE
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE TAKEN. STRONG
WINDS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY LAST FOR A DAY OR MORE OVER THE TIBURON
PENINSULA OF HAITI.
3. REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA: HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES IN SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. INTERESTS IN
CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA SINCE THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND STORM SURGE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 16.2N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.4N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.2N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 76.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 17.5N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 17.7N 78.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 19.3N 78.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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