572
AXPZ20 KNHC 240322
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND ALONG 112W FROM
08N TO 18N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 13N112W, AND AND IS BEING MONITORED AS INVEST 92E.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 KT. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS TROPICAL
WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 15N103W TO THE 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N112W, AND THEN ON TO 09N1125W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 09N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N EAST OF 80W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 13N, WITH
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT. EARLIER SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA FROM MIDDAY SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO NEAR 30 KT
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC. FARTHER NORTH, A MODEST RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO JUST SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL N OF CABO SAN
LAZARO, AND 6 TO 8 FT SOUTHWARD FROM THERE TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO
PUERTO ANGEL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS,
REACHING NEAR 30 KT, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT,
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH MIDDAY FRI BEFORE
DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC STARTING MON.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
MOSTLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATING
SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT, WITH THE NEXT PULSES OF NW SWELL EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
EARLIER SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE E
GAP WINDS EXITING THE PAPAGAYO REGION, BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING INTO THE SE MEXICO WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT 09N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
COLOMBIA. SLIGHT SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT PREVAIL. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 92W, IMPACTING THE COASTS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM
MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 14N AND WEST
OF 115W, CENTERED ON A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N134W. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED
NORTH OF 21N AND WEST OF 120W. NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 9
FT IS NOTED NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR A TROUGH ALONG 142W
FROM 11N TO 16N AND W OF 140W, AND ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING W OF
140W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 11N TO 17N
WEST OF 134W. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL HAS BEGUN TO ENTER
THE NW WATERS, WITH A SOFAR OCEAN DRIFTING BUOY NEAR 30N140W
RECENTLY MEASURING SEAS OF 12 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF INVEST 92E, BETWEEN 110W AND 130W FROM 10N TO 15N
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI, THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N STARTING SAT
MORNING, AND DISSIPATE FROM AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
EARLY MON. LARGE NW SWELL BUILDING ACROSS NW WATERS TODAY WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
ADDITIONAL NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGIONAL
WATERS.
CHRISTENSEN
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