418
WTNT43 KNHC 240842
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, MELISSA IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ESTIMATED CENTER HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A BIT BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LAST EVENING, BUT
WIND DIRECTION DATA FROM BUOY 42058 ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION COULD STILL BE A BIT ELONGATED. THERE ARE SEVERAL DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL CLOUD CANOPY,
ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED AT THE
MOMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE MISSION SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
ESTIMATE OF MELISSA'S CENTER LOCATION AND INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS, AND FOR NOW THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.
WITH MELISSA LOCATED WITHIN A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, THE
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME
MEANDERING OR A SLOW NORTHEAST TO NORTH DRIFT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY SATURDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE JUST
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF THE STORM TO CAUSE
MELISSA TO BEGIN MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD, WITH THAT MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. WHAT'S MOST NOTEWORTHY IS THAT SEVERAL
RELIABLE MODELS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF, HCCA, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT SHIFT, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT SEVERAL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MELISSA'S CENTER GETTING
PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO OR OVER JAMAICA IN 2-3 DAYS. A SLOW
RECURVATURE IS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5, WITH MELISSA POTENTIALLY
MOVING NEAR WESTERN JAMAICA AND APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTINGLY, THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS MELISSA SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA THROUGH DAY 5, BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT MELISSA, BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SHEAR COULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES
AND STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO INDUCE
STRENGTHENING. THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE
INTENSITY MODELS THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS MELISSA BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS AN AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
GIVEN MELISSA'S CURRENT STRUCTURE, SEVERAL MODELS ARE EVEN STRONGER
THAN THE NHC FORECAST AT THAT FORECAST TIME. THERE IS LESS MODEL
AGREEMENT ON MELISSA'S INTENSITY AFTER 48 HOURS. IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THE NHC PREDICTION IS
NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN. OTHER MODELS SHOW FLATLINING OR DECREASING
INTENSITY AFTER 48 HOURS, BUT THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO SCENARIOS THAT
ACCOUNT FOR MORE LAND INTERACTION.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: DUE TO MELISSA’S SLOW MOTION, THE RISK OF A PROLONGED
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES, AND STORM SURGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR JAMAICA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION, SINCE STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS COULD BEGIN IN
JAMAICA LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY.
2. HAITI: HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI BY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROADS AND BUILDINGS IS
EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY ISOLATING COMMUNITIES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION AND IMMEDIATE
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE TAKEN. STRONG
WINDS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY LAST FOR A DAY OR MORE OVER THE TIBURON
PENINSULA OF HAITI.
3. REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA: HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES IN SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. INTERESTS IN
CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA SINCE THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND STORM SURGE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 16.0N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.6N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.9N 75.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.9N 77.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.9N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 19.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
FORECASTER BERG
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