174
AXPZ20 KNHC 240930
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS ALONG
113W FROM 07N TO 17N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 13N113W, AND AND IS BEING MONITORED AS INVEST 92E.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 KT. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N91W TO 13N103W TO THE
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N113W, AND THEN ON TO 09N130W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N EAST
OF 80W, AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND
102W, AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 13N, WITH
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT. A SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER PASS
FROM AROUND 03 UTC SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO NEAR 30
KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC. FARTHER NORTH, A MODEST RIDGE
PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO JUST SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN
NW SWELL PREVAIL NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND 6 TO 8 FT
SOUTHWARD FROM THERE TO JUST WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE FROM THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO PUERTO
ANGEL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS,
REACHING NEAR 30 KT, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT,
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC STARTING MON NIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
MOSTLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATING
SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT, WITH THE NEXT PULSES OF NW SWELL EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT
10N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SLIGHT SEAS TO AROUND 4-6 FT PREVAIL PRIMARILY IN
SW SWELL. THE MOIST SW FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE COAST FROM
COLOMBIA TO EL SALVADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM
MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 115W, ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE INVEST 92E, THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N113W. SEAS
ARE LIKELY 8 FT IN THE AREA OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS, AND 8-9 FT
WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE DUE TO FRESH SW WINDS
MIXING WITH NW SWELL. NW SWELL OF 8-9 FT ALSO PERSISTS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE WIND WAVES FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W, WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
ACTIVE. LARGE, REINFORCING NW SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
DISCUSSION AREA, COVERING THE WATERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 30N125W
TO 20N140W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST ELSEWHERE WITH 5
TO 7 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF INVEST 92E, BETWEEN 110W AND 130W FROM 10N TO 15N
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TODAY, THEN GIVE WAY TO THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N STARTING
SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE NW
REINFORCING SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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