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TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 11(15) 26(41)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) 6(19) 17(36)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 12(40)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 16(28) 30(58) 15(73) 9(82)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 17(36) 14(50)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 12(30)
KINGSTON 34 X 7( 7) 27(34) 27(61) 19(80) 5(85) 2(87)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 24(43) 4(47) 4(51)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) 3(26)
LES CAYES 34 X 11(11) 12(23) 5(28) 4(32) 2(34) 5(39)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 12(13) 9(22) 3(25) 3(28) 2(30) 6(36)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4)
CAPE BEATA 34 1 9(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) 2(22)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 5( 9)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4)
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