613
WTNT43 KNHC 241459
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE THAT HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH
MELISSA THIS MORNING FOUND THE CENTER SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. HOW MUCH OF
THIS POSITION IS RELATED TO A REAL MOTION, OR A CENTER REFORMATION
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE STORM REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING, WITH A LARGE BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ALONG ITS SOUTHEASTERN FLANK, WITH
EVIDENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STILL UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. A
WSFM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS VERY DEEP HOT TOWERS, BUT NOT WITH THAT
MUCH STRUCTURE BEYOND THAT. IN ADDITION, THERE HASN'T BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MELISSA'S INTENSITY, WITH PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT, AND THESE WINDS SUPPORT MAINTAINING 40 KT
INTENSITY THIS ADVISORY.
AS HAS BEEN STATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE LACK OF PERSISTENT
STEERING CURRENTS, DUE TO COMPETING MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF MELISSA, IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM'S
VERY SLOW MOTION. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
AND MUCH OF THE SYSTEM'S MOTION COULD BE JUST AS INFLUENCED BY
CENTER REFORMATIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
TO THE NORTH OF MELISSA, AND THE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME FRAME, A STRENGTHENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., SHOULD PROVIDE AN AVENUE FOR
MELISSA TO ESCAPE THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE OVERALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS, BUT THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, RELATED TO WHEN AND
HOW FAST MELISSA TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR ONE EARLY ON, BUT IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD IN 4-5 DAYS, ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HCCA AND GDMI MODEL AID SOLUTIONS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, MELISSA
COULD POTENTIALLY BE NEAR WESTERN JAMAICA BY DAY 4 AND NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BY DAY 5, THOUGH TIMING STILL REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.
THE GFS AND ECMWF-BASED SHIPS SHEAR GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BETWEEN 14-17 KT, BUT
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW
LAYER. UNTIL MELISSA ALSO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED VERTICALLY, ANY
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 H OR
SO. AFTER THAT, ONCE MELISSA'S STRUCTURE IMPROVES, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). EVERY SINGLE GOOGLE DEEPMIND MEMBER SHOWS THE
SYSTEM BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OR HIGHER, AND THE UNCERTAINTY
IS MORE RELATED ON THE TIMING OF WHEN RI OCCURS. AFTER 96 HOURS,
MELISSA COULD WEAKEN SOME DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION, AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ON THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT MORE OR LESS IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST GDMI GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: DUE TO MELISSA’S SLOW MOTION, THE RISK OF A PROLONGED
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES, AND STORM SURGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR JAMAICA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION, SINCE STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS COULD BEGIN IN
JAMAICA ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
2. HAITI: HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROADS AND BUILDINGS IS EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY
ISOLATING COMMUNITIES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION AND IMMEDIATE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE TAKEN. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO
POTENTIALLY LAST FOR A DAY OR MORE OVER THE TIBURON PENINSULA OF
HAITI.
3. REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA: HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES IN SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. INTERESTS IN
CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA SINCE THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND STORM SURGE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
FORECASTER PAPIN
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