195
AXPZ20 KNHC 241604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ALONG 114W FROM 07N TO 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW, INVEST 92E, IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 13N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE N AND NE
QUADRANTS, ALSO WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 30
NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM PRESENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 95W FROM 05N TO 17N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 10N, AND WITHIN
60 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 11N79W SOUTHWEST AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF COSTA RICA, WESTWARD TO 10N89W, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N95W,
NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N104W TO LOW PRESSURE OF 1007 MB NEAR
13N114W, THEN TO 10N120W TO 09N125W AND TO 08N134W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N134W AND TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W-84W, AND WITHIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-106W, WITHIN
60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-95W, BETWEEN 96W-98W,
ALSO WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-126W, AND
WITHIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 118W-120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO
NEAR 13N ALONG WITHIN SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IS PRESENT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATEST ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND 6 TO 8 FT SOUTHWARD FROM
THERE TO JUST WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO PUERTO ANGEL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION INTO EARLY SAT, AT
WHICH TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS.
SEAS WILL LOWER TO LESS THAN 8 FT AT THAT TIME. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING MON NIGHT. THE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT, WITH THE NEXT PULSES OF NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
ALONG ABOUT 10N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASSES REVEAL SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PRIMARILY IN SOUTHWEST
SWELL. THE MOIST MONSOONAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG, AND TO
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM OFFSHORE THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA TO EL
SALVADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT, WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ONSHORE WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 10N
ON SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 115W, ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AN OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS INDICATED NEAR-GALE FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE INVEST 92E, THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS NEAR 13N114W. SEAS ARE LIKELY 8 FT IN THE AREA OF NEAR-
GALE FORCE WINDS, AND 8-9 FT WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE DUE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS MIXING WITH NORTHWEST SWELL.
NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IT IS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEAST WIND
WAVES FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W, WHERE FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE PRESENT. A SET OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL HAS MOVED INTO
THE NW SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT LOCATED NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM 30N125W TO 22N132W TO 15N140W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF INVEST 92E, BETWEEN 110W AND 130W FROM 10N TO 15N
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TODAY, THEN GIVE WAY TO THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N STARTING
SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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