770
WTPZ43 KNHC 242035
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING, LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS NOW ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT AMSR2 AND SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASSES REVEALED DEVELOPING CURVED BANDS (-70C CLOUD TOPS) TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER. THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0 (30 KT), AND A FORTUITOUS
METOP-B SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-30 KT. THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS, A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT AND
MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD HAMPER SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY, GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEANIC SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
COMMENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE IVCN AND HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS
INTENSITY AIDS AND SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 5
DAYS.
THE DEPRESSION'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD OR
270/11 KT. A WEST-TO-EAST-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERALLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BY
SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FORWARD
SPEED IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WHILE AN
AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST/BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. OVER THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE PERIOD, THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WHILE CONTINUING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES
BETWEEN THE BETTER-PERFORMING HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 13.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 13.3N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 13.5N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 13.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 15.4N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 15.2N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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