360
AXPZ20 KNHC 242205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR
13.2N 116.0W, OR ABOUT 680 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT CURVED BANDS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER. THE OBSERVED CONVECTION
CONSISTS OF THE NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEM FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W,
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N117W TO 12.5N115W AND FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 114W AND 116W. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
EIGHTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 96W FROM 05N TO 17N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS EAST OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N96W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 12N79W SOUTHWEST AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF COSTA RICA, WESTWARD TO 08N96W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E, AND CONTINUES TO 11N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N124W
1012 MB AND TO 09N127W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO
09N127W AND TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
123W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-107W, AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1540Z ASCAT SATELLITE PASS REVEALED THE ONGOING GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS IT SHOWS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FUNNELING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
13N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS HAVE LOWERED
TO LESS THAN 8 FT. OTHERWISE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED
GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATEST ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND 6 TO 8 FT SOUTHWARD FROM
THERE TO JUST WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO PUERTO ANGEL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TONIGHT, THEN
DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEED EARLY ON SAT, WITH SEAS LOWERING TO LESS
THAN 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULSE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BEGINNING
STARTING SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN, AT WHICH
TIME ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL SET WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
SAME WATERS. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTENN-E IS WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WELL AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES
FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PRIMARILY IN
SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE MOIST MONSOONAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG,
AND TO WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM OFFSHORE THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA TO
EL SALVADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT, WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM MELISSA THAT WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ABOUT MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E.
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 115W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF 30N140W. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 118W, EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF ABOUT 128W. LATEST
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT OVER
THESE WATERS DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THE HIGHEST
OF THESE SEAS ARE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 30N120W
TO 23N129W TO 12140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH SWELL GENERATED BY WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM EIGHTEEN-E DURING THE
WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM EIGHTEEN-E IS FORECATS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR 15N125W..
AGUIRRE
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