733
WTPZ43 KNHC 250235
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN DEEP CONVECTION
PERIODICALLY FORMING NEAR THE CENTER, WITH A BROAD, LOOSE BAND
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 27-26 DEG C, WITH
LIGHT-TO-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
HUMDITIES. AROUND 48 TO 60 H, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE, INDUCING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, COOLING OCEAN WATERS AND
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED REDUCE AND DISSIPATE THE DEEP,
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THIS MAY OCCUR
SOONER, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4.
THE ESTIMATED MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE THE MAIN
STEERING FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WHICH WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE
ITS WESTWARD HEADING WITH A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AS THE VORTEX BECOMES MORE SHALLOW BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN BACK
WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED TO THE NORTH, AND LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA AND THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 13.2N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 13.3N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 13.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 13.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 13.8N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 14.4N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BUCCI
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