096
AXPZ20 KNHC 250341
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0335 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 116.6W AT
25/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE PEAKING AROUND 11 FT
(3.5 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT FROM 11N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
EIGHTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 98W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
11N86W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 11N100W AND TO 13N115W AND TO
09N131W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 09N131W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 14N AND EAST
OF 112W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 07N TO 11N AND
BETWEEN 120W AND 129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES
IN THE DEEP TROPICS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL NORTH OF HAWAII,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-11 FT ARE NOTED
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT OFF CABO CORRIENTES AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM COLIMA
TO GUERRERO. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS
EARLY ON SAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL
BEGIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA
BY MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN, AT WHICH TIME
ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL SET WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAME
WATERS. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUSTAINS MODERATE S-SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE ARE EVIDENT
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT, WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM MELISSA THAT WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ABOUT MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E.
ASIDE FOR THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE REST OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED NORTH OF HAWAII. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULTS IN MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON AND ITCZ TO
24N AND WEST OF 115W. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH
SEAS IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE ALSO FOUND IN THE NE WATERS, WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE NW WATERS. MOREOVER,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SAT MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH SWELL
GENERATED BY WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM EIGHTEEN-E
DURING THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM EIGHTEEN-E IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR 15N123W, BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW NEAR 15N127W.
DELGADO
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