798
AXPZ20 KNHC 250909
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SONIA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 117.6W AT 25/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE PEAKING AROUND 13 FT (4 M).
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM
11N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST, AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SATURDAY. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
EIGHTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 99W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
09N84W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 09N100W AND TO 13N117W AND TO
09N129W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 09N129W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 15N AND
BETWEEN 95W AND 113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ELSEWHERE, THE REST OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC THAT EXTENDS TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE SATELLITE
WIND DATA ALSO CAPTURED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-11 FT NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, WHILE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. LASTLY, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF
SW AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL BEGIN
IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA BY MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE-FORCE N
WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
N WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN, AT WHICH TIME
ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL SET WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAME
WATERS. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR, NICARAGUA, PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT FRESH
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUSTAINS MODERATE S-SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE ARE PREVALENT
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM MELISSA THAT WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ABOUT MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM SONIA.
WHILE SONIA SLOWLY CHURNS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS, THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TRADE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO 25N
AND WEST OF 115W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 8-11 FT DUE TO A
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER OUR NW WATERS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 25N. MEANWHILE, THE SATELLITE-
DERIVED WIND DATA ALSO CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 6-9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL
STORM SONIA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM SONIA IS NEAR 13.3N
117.6W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SONIA WILL MOVE TO 13.4N 118.6W THIS
AFTERNOON, 13.4N 119.5W SUN MORNING, 13.6N 120.4W SUN AFTERNOON,
14.1N 121.0W MON MORNING, 14.6N 121.6W MON AFTERNOON, AND 15.2N
122.4W TUE MORNING. SONIA WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OVER 15.5N
125.0W EARLY WED.
DELGADO
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