078
AXPZ20 KNHC 252104
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SONIA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 118.9W AT 25/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE PEAKING AROUND 17 FT (5 M). NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED FROM 10.5N TO 14.5N
BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD TODAY. A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND SONIA COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SONIA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 100W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 09N95W AND TO 12N109W, THEN
RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA NEAR 11N122W TO 07.5N136W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07.5N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FOR
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 09N AND BETWEEN 78W AND 85W,
AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
AND EXTENDS SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS PREVAIL.
ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE NOTED ACROSS THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE MODERATE SEAS ARE SEEN
ELSEWHERE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE OBSERVED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT WINDS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO,
AND MODERATE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5
FT IN THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS. ROUGH SEAS, IN NW SWELL, WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 OR 11 FT N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL REACHES THE AREA. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
ON TUE. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT.
THEREAFTER, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA BY MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE-FORCE N
WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SUSTAINS MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE ARE PREVALENT NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM SONIA.
OUTSIDE OF SONIA, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 110W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TRADE WIND ZONE, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST OF 120W.
BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA, SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS
DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 124W AND 129W WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
110W AND 124W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE N WATERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE TROPICAL STORM SONIA
MOVES WESTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL
STORM SONIA BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM SONIA WILL MOVE TO
13.6N 119.7W SUN MORNING, 13.7N 120.3W SUN AFTERNOON, 14.1N
120.9W MON MORNING, 14.7N 121.9W MON AFTERNOON, 15.0N 123.1W TUE
MORNING, AND 15.1N 124.7W TUE AFTERNOON. SONIA WILL WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 15.0N 128.0W WED AFTERNOON.
GR
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