448
WTNT43 KNHC 260252
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS CONTINUING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE AIR
FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 115 KT IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL OF THE 17 NM WIDE EYE AT 700 MB, ALONG WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 100 KT, MAKING MELISSA A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/3 KT. A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MELISSA SHOULD STEER THE
HURRICANE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 36 H OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BREAK THE RIDGE,
WITH MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED DURING THE FIRST 72 H, WITH MELISSA EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
JAMAICA IN 48-60 H AND THEN BE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA AROUND 72
H. BEYOND 72 H, THERE IS SOME SPEED AND DIRECTION SPREAD, BUT
OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MELISSA SHOULD
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 60 H AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AFTER THAT TIME.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H,
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DURING THIS TIME MELISSA COULD INTENSIFY
EVEN FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE PEAKING BEFORE IT REACHES JAMAICA, AND
BASED ON THIS THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS A 48-H PEAK INTENSITY OF 140
KT. AFTERWARDS, SOME INNER-CORE OSCILLATIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD LEAD TO FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY BEFORE
MELISSA'S FIRST LANDFALL IN JAMAICA. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF A
CATEGORY 4 OR 5 LANDFALL, AND MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
THAT INTENSITY WHEN IT MOVES OVER JAMAICA. MELISSA SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT INTERACTS WITH JAMAICA AND CUBA, ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL FORECAST
TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT NEARS CUBA. A FASTER WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PASSING CUBA WHEN THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS STRONG
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS REMAINS A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION, IN TERMS OF CATASTROPHIC
RAINFALL, WIND, AND STORM SURGE HAZARDS FOR JAMAICA, AND
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE AREA CURRENTLY
UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: SEEK SHELTER NOW. A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BEGUN AND WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES. EXTENSIVE
INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE, LONG-DURATION POWER AND COMMUNICATION
OUTAGES, AND ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED.
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. HAITI: CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LIKELY CAUSING EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND ISOLATION
OF COMMUNITIES. STRONG WINDS COULD LAST FOR A DAY OR MORE OVER THE
TIBURON PENINSULA.
3. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
4. EASTERN CUBA, SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS:
MONITOR MELISSA CLOSELY. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN EASTERN CUBA, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES IS INCREASING. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.2W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND JAMAICA
72H 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 72.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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