340
AXPZ20 KNHC 260305
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0255 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SONIA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 119.3W AT 26/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE PEAKING AROUND 19 FT (5.5 M).
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
10N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
SLOWER FORWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND, AND SONIA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SONIA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 101W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 10N95W AND TO 13N106W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 12N122W TO 09N130W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 09N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FOR THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT FROM 06N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 88W AND 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF HAWAII EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE
WATERS. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO GENERATE SEAS OF 8-11
FT IN THESE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT
ARE PRESENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO
CORRIENTE. ELSEWHERE IN THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING
THE REST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS. ROUGH SEAS, IN NW SWELL, WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 OR 11 FT N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL REACHES THE AREA. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
ON TUE. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT.
THEREAFTER, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA BY MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE-FORCE N
WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
ONSHORE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH W WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 03N, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED OFF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE MELISSA LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM SONIA LOCATED WELL SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SONIA CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE EASTERN WATERS, WHILE THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS HAS WEAKENED INTO A
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH
OF HAWAII. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. A
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THESE
WATERS. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE N WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE
TROPICAL STORM SONIA MOVES WESTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SWELL
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HAS MERGED
WITH SWELL GENERATED BY SONIA. TROPICAL STORM SONIA IS NEAR
13.5N 119.3W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. SONIA WILL MOVE TO 13.5N 119.8W SUN
MORNING, 13.8N 120.4W SUN EVENING, 14.2N 121.3W MON MORNING,
14.7N 122.3W MON EVENING, 14.9N 123.8W TUE MORNING, AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 15.0N 125.4W TUE EVENING. SONIA WILL
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OVER 14.8N 128.7W LATE WED.
DELGADO
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