252
WTPZ43 KNHC 261446
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
DEEP CONVECTION RETURNED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT, BUT
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE BROKEN. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LIKELY SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CONVECTIVE SHIELD DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE BOTH DATA-T 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 35 TO 50 KT. USING
THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
SONIA IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 280/03 KT.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH A CONTINUED SLOW
FORWARD MOTION THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW VORTEX, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW AT A SIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NEAR THE PREVIOUS AND
LIES BETWEEN THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
SOLUTIONS.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR, BUT WILL
REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THUS, LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY. BEYOND THE 24-36 H TIME PERIOD, A
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR, AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND MID-LEVEL RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE IN 2
TO 3 DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY LOSE CONVECTION, AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 60
HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
SIMULATED IR SATELLITE SOLUTIONS, AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE TRENDS, WITH THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 13.7N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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