279
WTNT33 KNHC 261736
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MELISSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MAJOR
HURRICANE MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, GUANTANAMO, AND
HOLGUIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, CUBA, THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED
BY AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.4
NORTH, LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5
MPH (7 KM/H). A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
JAMAICA ON TUESDAY, ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MELISSA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. MELISSA
IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN MAKING LANDFALL IN
JAMAICA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA LATE
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IS
946 MB (27.94 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURING IN JAMAICA, WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HAITI TODAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA IN HAITI HAVE
DIMINISHED FOR TODAY, BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS OCCURRING THERE ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL: MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 15 TO
30 INCHES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. CATASTROPHIC
FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY.
FOR EASTERN CUBA, TOTAL RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES, WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 20 INCHES, IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS, TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF JAMAICA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PEAK
STORM SURGE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL,
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL.
THIS STORM SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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