755
WTPZ43 KNHC 262050
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WANING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30
TO 44 KT, AND THE PEAK SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM ASCAT-B WERE 36
KT. USING THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND REFINED WITH THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA.
SONIA IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
295/03 KT. THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WEAKEN, THE STORM WILL TURN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
PREVIOUS, BETWEEN THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
AIDS.
SONIA CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR, WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO SUB 27C
OCEAN TEMPERATURES, WITH EVEN COOLER SSTS, AND A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INTENSITY AIDS
SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SIMULATED IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO BE CATEGORIZED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY 60H. THE LATEST
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE TRENDS AND LIES NEAR THE
CONSENSUS AIDS, BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 60H AND THEN DISSIPATING
BY DAY 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 13.8N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 14.5N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 14.7N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 14.5N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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