520
WTNT33 KNHC 262055
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..HURRICANE MELISSA RESUMES INTENSIFYING
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, GUANTANAMO, AND HOLGUIN. THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, GUANTANAMO, AND
HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, CUBA, THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS
LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR
OR OVER JAMAICA ON TUESDAY, ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TUESDAY NIGHT,
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MELISSA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE
WHEN MAKING LANDFALL IN JAMAICA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA LATE TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES
(335 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IS
941 MB (27.79 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURING IN JAMAICA, WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN EASTERN CUBA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE ONGOING IN THE WARNING AREA IN HAITI. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA IN HAITI HAVE DIMINISHED FOR
TODAY, BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS
OCCURRING THERE ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAINFALL OF 15 TO 30 INCHES
TO PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 8 TO 16 INCHES FOR
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL MAXIMA
OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY.
FOR EASTERN CUBA, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES, WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 20 INCHES, IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF JAMAICA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PEAK STORM
SURGE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL. THIS
STORM SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF CUBA LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. PEAK STORM SURGE HEIGHTS
COULD REACH 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS, NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL. THIS STORM SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND IN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA LATER THIS WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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