213
WTNT43 KNHC 262100
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
AFTER AN EARLIER PAUSE IN INTENSIFICATION, THIS AFTERNOON'S AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HAS FOUND MELISSA INTENSIFYING
AGAIN. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 12 MB FROM THIS MORNING
NOAA-P3 MISSION, WITH THE LAST DROPSONDE INDICATING A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 941 MB, AND THE PLANE REPORTED A SHRINKING EYEWALL DOWN
TO 6 N MI IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW PRESSURE, THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MELISSA REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE, WITH
1-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM A GOES-19 MESO-SECTOR SHOWING
A VERY CLEAR EYE WITH A STADIUM EFFECT. THE EYE TEMPERATURE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO WARM, WHILE THE THICK RING OF EYEWALL
CLOUD TOPS REMAINS BETWEEN -75 TO -80 C AROUND THE EYE. THE
PRESENTATION OF MELISSA ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM KINGSTON, JAMAICA
HAS ALSO IMPROVED, THOUGH THERE STILL APPEAR TO BE HINTS OF A MOAT
FORMING AROUND THE INNER EYEWALL, THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS
SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION YET. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH SAB AND TAFB WERE T7.0/140 KT, WITH OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES BETWEEN 132-143 KT. HOWEVER, MELISSA'S PEAK WINDS FROM THE
LAST COUPLE OF RECON MISSIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING THE SATELLITE-BASED
ESTIMATES. THE LAST FIX HAD PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY
129 KT, BUT A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED IN THE NORTH EYEWALL ALSO REPORTED
A 500 M LAYER AVERAGE OF 142 KT, WITH AN EARLIER DROPSONDE IN THE NE
EYEWALL WITH A SURFACE WIND GUST OF 131 KT. THIS DATA IS ENOUGH TO
RAISE THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 KT, AND GIVEN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
MELISSA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD, ESTIMATED AT 270/4 KT.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST TODAY, AND
THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS WHILE THE
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE. SOON, A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE UNITED STATES, AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CREATE A WEAKNESS THAT MELISSA WILL TURN
SHARPLY NORTHEAST INTO, AS IT GRADUALLY ACCELERATES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AGAIN THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED A LITTLE WEST AGAIN, BUT STILL SHOWS
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA. THERE
REMAIN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER, BUT A SECOND LANDFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS MELISSA THEN ACCELERATES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND
POTENTIALLY APPROACH BERMUDA BY THE DAY 4-5 TIME FRAME, WITH A
REINFORCING TROUGH HELPING TO KICK IT FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEST IN THE FIRST 24-60 H, BUT FALLS
BACK NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER. THE TRACK IS
ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE RELIABLE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH
(HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI).
NOW THAT MELISSA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN, IT SEEMS MORE CLEAR THAT THE
EARLIER PAUSE IN INTENSIFICATION WAS A TEMPORARY OSCILLATION, AND
THE HURRICANE NOW APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY MORE IN THE
SHORT-TERM. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
INTENSIFICATION IN 12 H, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A PEAK INTENSITY OF
140 KT, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HAFS-B WHICH SHOWS LANDFALL OF MELISSA
AS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS PEAK, WITH NOW 48/50 MEMBERS
REACHING THIS LOFTY INTENSITY. HOWEVER, INNER-CORE PROCESSES LIKE
ERCS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME, AND THE CURRENT SMALL EYE OF MELISSA
LIKELY SUGGESTS AN ERC COULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO,
THOUGH IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THESE OCCURRENCES WITH MUCH
SKILL. AFTER LANDFALL IN JAMAICA, MELISSA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOME
DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THAT ISLAND'S HIGH TERRAIN, BUT IT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN CROSSING THE CUBA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MELISSA COULD START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY
5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE, BUT FALLS CLOSER TO THE HCCA AND IVCN AIDS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: SEEK SHELTER NOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES BEFORE POTENTIALLY
DEVASTATING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE, LONG-DURATION POWER AND
COMMUNICATION OUTAGES, AND ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED.
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
2. HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: CATASTROPHIC AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN HAITI, EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND
ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES IS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY
DECREASED ON THE TIBURON PENINSULA, THEY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN HAITI ON TUESDAY.
3. EASTERN CUBA: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
4. SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS: MONITOR MELISSA
CLOSELY. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 16.4N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.4N 77.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
60H 29/0600Z 20.0N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...ON THE SE CUBA COAST
72H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 30/1800Z 28.0N 69.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 37.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER PAPIN
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