126
FONT13 KNHC 270244
PWSAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC MON OCT 27 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 30(46)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 30(35) 1(36) X(36)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 3(48) 1(49)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 66(71) 3(74) X(74)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 3(38) X(38)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 2(36) X(36)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 41(47) 24(71) 1(72) X(72)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 24(33) X(33) X(33)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 34 32 54(86) 12(98) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONTEGO BAY 50 1 12(13) 55(68) 14(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X 2( 2) 41(43) 17(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61)
KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGSTON 50 1 7( 8) 36(44) 13(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
KINGSTON 64 X 2( 2) 16(18) 12(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
LES CAYES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 1(20) X(20)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FORECASTER PASCH
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