243
WTNT43 KNHC 270245
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
MELISSA REMAINS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE
SURROUNDED BY EXTREMELY COLD CLOUD TOPS, SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN
-80 DEG C. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE SYMMETRICAL ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO NEAR 933 MB, AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES, INCLUDING SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES OF
T7.0, SUGGEST A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN FOUND BY THE AIRCRAFT THUS
FAR.
ALTHOUGH THE EYE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE SOUTH RECENTLY, THIS IS
BELIEVED TO BE TEMPORARY AND A MORE REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 270/4 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN STEERING MELISSA WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN, A DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE MELISSA TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS.
SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, IT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE UNTIL IT INTERACTS WITH THE LAND
MASSES OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR NORTH OF CUBA SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: SEEK SHELTER NOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES BEFORE POTENTIALLY
DEVASTATING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE, LONG-DURATION POWER AND
COMMUNICATION OUTAGES, AND ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED.
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
2. HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: CATASTROPHIC AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN HAITI, EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND
ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES ARE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY
DECREASED ON THE TIBURON PENINSULA, THEY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN HAITI ON TUESDAY.
3. EASTERN CUBA: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
4. SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS: MONITOR MELISSA
CLOSELY. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 16.3N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 16.5N 78.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.1N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 21.1N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 23.4N 73.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 30.1N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 38.1N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER PASCH
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