330
WTNT33 KNHC 270557
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MELISSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
200 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON
JAMAICA BY TONIGHT...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ALSO EXPECTED...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, GUANTANAMO, AND
HOLGUIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN JAMAICA AND RUSHED TO COMPLETION
IN CUBA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS, AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MELISSA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. MELISSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CORE OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MELISSA IS
A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY BEFORE MELISSA REACHES JAMAICA. MELISSA
IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN MAKING LANDFALL
IN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES (315 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB (27.34 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING IN JAMAICA, AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ATOP
AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS COULD BE UP TO 30
PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY, AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS COULD BE EVEN GREATER.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN EASTERN CUBA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL: MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAINFALL OF 15 TO 30 INCHES
TO PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 8 TO 16 INCHES FOR
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH STORM TOTAL LOCAL MAXIMA
OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY.
FOR EASTERN CUBA, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES, WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 20 INCHES, IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING WITH NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PEAK
STORM SURGE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL,
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL.
THIS STORM SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF CUBA LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. PEAK STORM SURGE HEIGHTS
COULD REACH 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS, NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL. THIS STORM SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA LATER THIS WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BERG/HAGEN
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