373
WTPZ43 KNHC 270836
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
200 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RENEWED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND
JUST NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, DESPITE THE STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AFFECTING IT.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 285/6 KT, AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY, AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. BY TUESDAY, SONIA SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE-WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
ALTHOUGH SONIA HAS BEEN ABLE TO REGENERATE CONVECTION AND MAY
CONTINUE TO DO SO INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TAKING ITS TOLL SOON. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR, MARGINAL SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE
FORECAST PATH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT.
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS CONVECTION
STEADILY DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY, AND SONIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY MIDWEEK AS THE REMNANT LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH. THE UPDATED
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 14.2N 120.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 14.4N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 14.8N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 14.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 14.7N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page